I did a light pass at this sort of analysis a few years ago. Nothing I have heard or read since has changed my mind. But these are what I found and the conclusions I drew. The school shootings fell into a couple of broad categories.
There was the cases like this one seems to be, which was the shooter had some specific grievance against one or a small group of people, and is unable to resolve the matter using the normal pathways for such in the school. The shooter plans the crime such that they will be able to get their enemies all in one place and take them all out at once. Then they usually suicide, or less commonly surrender, once they have completed their self-appointed mission. These incidents are typically all completed before the police dispatcher has finished making their initial radio call for response. Ability of anyone to react and stop the shooter before they have finished is pretty small, mostly because the very short duration of the active shooting period. Having armed school staff, unless they happen to be one of the targets, is not tactically significant, as they don't have time to interfere with the bad guy before completion.
then there are the cases where the bad guy has a larger group of targets, how large ranges from a particular gang up to everyone in the school. Possibly because of bullying, or they are just freaking crazy. These shootings tend to last longer, but it is still not that many minutes from initiation to completion of the shootings. Here, there is time for school staff, students, and police to learn of the situation, take action, and interfere with the bad guy. Actions that can be taken are many, but fall down to three basics. 1] Run away. For an unarmed person, often the best option. 2] Hide. If you can't run, then you hide and hope the bad guy can't find you. Hopefully you have a nice sturdy lockable door to close and nice thick walls between you and the bad guy. 3] Defend yourself. Using any available weapon, from your bare hands to a firearm. The more effective your weapon, the better chance you have to stop the bad guy before he gets you or another innocent victim. Praying is available under all of these options, but rarely has any visible beneficial effect.
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timeasmymeasure
no subject
Date: 2014-10-25 03:59 am (UTC)I did a light pass at this sort of analysis a few years ago. Nothing I have heard or read since has changed my mind. But these are what I found and the conclusions I drew. The school shootings fell into a couple of broad categories.
There was the cases like this one seems to be, which was the shooter had some specific grievance against one or a small group of people, and is unable to resolve the matter using the normal pathways for such in the school. The shooter plans the crime such that they will be able to get their enemies all in one place and take them all out at once. Then they usually suicide, or less commonly surrender, once they have completed their self-appointed mission. These incidents are typically all completed before the police dispatcher has finished making their initial radio call for response. Ability of anyone to react and stop the shooter before they have finished is pretty small, mostly because the very short duration of the active shooting period. Having armed school staff, unless they happen to be one of the targets, is not tactically significant, as they don't have time to interfere with the bad guy before completion.
then there are the cases where the bad guy has a larger group of targets, how large ranges from a particular gang up to everyone in the school. Possibly because of bullying, or they are just freaking crazy. These shootings tend to last longer, but it is still not that many minutes from initiation to completion of the shootings. Here, there is time for school staff, students, and police to learn of the situation, take action, and interfere with the bad guy. Actions that can be taken are many, but fall down to three basics. 1] Run away. For an unarmed person, often the best option. 2] Hide. If you can't run, then you hide and hope the bad guy can't find you. Hopefully you have a nice sturdy lockable door to close and nice thick walls between you and the bad guy. 3] Defend yourself. Using any available weapon, from your bare hands to a firearm. The more effective your weapon, the better chance you have to stop the bad guy before he gets you or another innocent victim. Praying is available under all of these options, but rarely has any visible beneficial effect.